Population Projections Predict U.S. Manufacturing Growth

I've quoted Joel Kotkin's book The Next Hundred Million:  America in 2050 many, many times in this column.  Kotkin's premise is that manufacturing can revive in the U.S. based on the demographic fact that the U.S. is growing population while the countries with which we compete for production and GDP are withering from population challenges.

I decided to go find the numbers for myself this time.  It's confirmed.

China, Germany, and Japan are the countries that rank behind the United States in Gross Domestic Product among industrialized countries.  See the list at Wikipedia.

The U.S., alone, is growing population through a favorable birth rate and immigration.

That fact bodes well for the U.S. to continue to be the global leader in production and manufacturing.

Be sure to see the charts from the UN's World Population Prospects website to generate your own.

A few observations from these population projections:

• China's population will actually DECLINE after 2030.  That's not far off considering the production-age population has, likely, already begun to decline.
• Germany and Japan's populations have already begun to DECLINE.  By 2050, more than 14% and 20% respective reductions in population are predicted for these two one-time economic powerhouses.
• The United States will, during the same time, ADD 100 million people by 2050.

It's easy to see.  The World will need to turn to the U.S. to produce in the coming decades.

Just like Kotkin said.

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Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpp, Saturday, February 12, 2011; 7:28:22 PM.

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China
Population (thousands)
Medium variant
2000-2050

Year	Population
2000	1 266 954
2005	1 312 253
2010	1 354 146
2015	1 395 998
2020	1 431 155
2025	1 453 140
2030	1 462 468
2035	1 462 351
2040	1 455 055
2045	1 440 289
2050	1 417 045

Germany
Population (thousands)
Medium variant
2000-2050

Year	Population
2000	82 075
2005	82 409
2010	82 057
2015	81 346
2020	80 422
2025	79 258
2030	77 854
2035	76 234
2040	74 435
2045	72 503
2050	70 504

Japan
Population (thousands)
Medium variant
2000-2050

Year	Population
2000	126 706
2005	127 449
2010	126 995
2015	125 791
2020	123 664
2025	120 793
2030	117 424
2035	113 733
2040	109 804
2045	105 740
2050	101 659

United States of America
Population (thousands)
Medium variant
2000-2050

Year	Population
2000	287 842
2005	302 741
2010	317 641
2015	332 334
2020	346 153
2025	358 735
2030	369 981
2035	379 999
2040	388 907
2045	396 766
2050	403 932